People have always wanted to see into the future—and traders even more so. Yet, there’s no magical crystal ball to reveal the ...

For decades, the US yield curve rarely misfired, becoming a lodestar for investors. But like assuming a car’s dash is reality ...

Prior to 2011, this correlation was always negative, and in some cases, as high as -0.6, signaling the importance of changes in short-term rates as drivers of changes in the slope of the yield curve.

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity ...

Investors, therefore, normally require an additional return, in the form of higher yields, to offset the risks of venturing out along the yield curve. A yield-curve inversion does not cause a ...

He emphasized that a steepening yield curve, combined with lower funding costs, supports positive net interest spreads. He also highlighted the potential benefits of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Watching the yield curve as a portent of future economic stability has historical cred. "Numerous studies document the ability of the slope of the yield curve (often measured as the difference ...

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, ... 2020, 2007-2009, 2001 and 1990-1991 - the 2/10 curve had turned positive by the time a recession occurred, ...

In the past four recessions - 2020, 2007-2009, 2001 and 1990-1991 - the 2/10 curve had turned positive by the time a recession occurred, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis published last year.