President-elect Donald Trump spent Christmas Day laying out his foreign policy aspirations for his second term, including his threat to retake control of the Panama Canal. He also suggested the U.S. could take control of Greenland and Canada.

Threat Status is closely tracking whether Mr. Trump will follow through on his threat or is simply trying to compel policy outcomes before his inauguration. Consider, for instance, that German automakers could duck tariffs by making more automobiles in the U.