Shifts in US policy, and their potential economic implications, remain in focus. Our global growth forecasts for 2025–26 have been lifted slightly in the February update, although this masks ...

Typically during a recession, actual economic output drops below its potential, which creates a negative output gap. That below-potential performance may spur a central bank to adopt a monetary policy ...

marking the first time in two years that the economy’s actual growth will fail to meet its potential growth of around 2%. The growth rate could lag even further if the aftermath of the Dec. 3 ...