Is a recession coming? A look at yield curve inversion and what it means for the economy. Learn about government bonds and economic indicators.

Historically, when the yield on the US 10-year Treasury falls below the 2-year yield, also known as yield curve inversion, a recession is likely to follow.

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An inverted yield curve is a sign of abnormal (and even illogical) market conditions where long-term Treasury debt pays less interest than short-term debt.

The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for much of 2025. Inversions have preceded every recession since the 1960s. A downturn could mean trouble for stocks, with a majority of investors ...

Inverted yield curve, for instance, has a good historical track record of predicting U.S. recessions.

When the gap between the 2-year Treasury yield and its longer 10-year counterpart turns positive, after a period of inversion — as it has been lately —it usually foreshadows a recession.